$SPY, $STUDY With the Greece referendum
up for voting on Sunday, investors stayed cautious ahead of the long weekend.
There were no fireworks in the stock market Thursday, as trading slowed
noticeably from the prior few sessions. The June jobs report (nonfarm payrolls +223K
with unemployment rate dropping to 5.3%) came in slightly below estimates, but
it was strong enough to suggest a September rate hike. And like Wednesday, a
gap-up open was followed by profit taking in the morning. The goo d news was
that the three major indexes were able to hold yesterday’s lows. Stocks
recouped most of the morning losses in the afternoon to finish near the
breakeven line.
The Alpha Major Market model and the
related Alpha One and Alpha Two models have been updated through July 2,
2015. We will be updating the Alpha
Master List during the month of July and posting it to the site on Saturday
July 25th. The Asset
Allocation recommendation remained at 37.5% Long and 62.5% Cash which is
confirmed by the weakening in the aggregate ratings of our watch list universe
which is at 39.72% Long – 16.82% Neutral – 43.46% Avoid. There are nine names
on the watch list for those who like to play with a falling knife. Should I wake up one day in the coming week
with an eye for expansion HAIN and LEN would be two I might focus on and both
GILD and IDTI are continuing to show signs of weakening and may be removed from
the portfolio in the coming week should a reversal not occur.
Expect fireworks in the stock market
early next week, as the market expects actions from Greece’s creditors after
the vote on the referendum. Technically, stocks aren’t in a bad shape. Both the
DJIA and the S&P 500 were able to hold their respective 200-day moving
averages (17687 for the DJIA and 2056 for the S&P 500) while the NASDAQ held
its 100-day moving average (4095). Should these support levels get broken,
areas near this week’s lows (10576 for the DJIA and 2056 for the S&P 500)
should hold in the near term.
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