Sunday August 31, 214

$SPY, I just posted the most recent details on the Alpha One Model Portfolio for review.  I will be keeping an especially attentive eye on $ACT, $AVGO, $CAVM and $LUV from the watch list this coming week for possible additions to the portfolio.  Currently the portfolio is 62% Long in accordance with the Allocation Model and I won’t push that into the coming week.  Still watching $XEC for an exit point following the downgrade in opinion but it has not rolled over as of yet so I am still long and following it closely.

Over the years I have come to value the work of three men from Wall Street Ralph Acampora, Art Cashin and Byron Wein.  None of the three is right all of the time but each is a far superior market technician than can be found on the internet or popular T. V. programs.

Byron Wein wrote an article titled ‘Smart Money: Upbeat Amid Headwinds’, which was published in Barron's on August 29, it is well worth your time to locate and read if you have the opportunity.  In it he summarizes the reactions to the current global economic and political scenario as seen through the eyes of the business leaders who attend his summer luncheon meetings in a environ Easts of Manhattan.  In my opinion it is well done and well worth your time an effort.

Discloser: This document provides only impersonal advice and statistical data and is not intended to meet objectives or suitability requirements of any specific account. Alpha for the Independent Investor is a blog/newsletter which is published periodically, not requiring subscription or compensation in any manner for the information provide. The publisher is not compensated in any manner, financial or otherwise, by any third parties which may from time to time be mentioned in the writings or examples.

Investing involves substantial risk. Neither the publisher, the authors, nor any of their employees makes any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using the Newsletter. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for every situation. While past performance may be analyzed in the Newsletter, past performance should not be considered indicative of future performance. No subscriber should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing the prospectus and other public filings of the issuer. The publisher and the authors make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the Newsletter and specifically disclaim all warranties, including without limitation warranties of fitness for a particular purpose. Neither the publisher nor the authors shall be liable for damages arising here from. No warranty may be created or extended by sales or promotional materials.

The fact that an organization or Website is referred to in the Newsletter as a citation and/or a potential source of further information does not mean that the authors or the publisher endorse the information the organization or Website may provide or recommendations it may make. Further, readers should be aware that Internet Websites listed in this work may have changed or disappeared between when the Newsletter was written and when it is read.

The Newsletter is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities. The authors may own the securities which are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the Newsletter and will make disclosures concerning their ownership of securities where relevant.

Friday August 29, 2014

$SPY  Opened a position with $TRN Thursday.  It had been on the cusp of being upgraded to a Long and did so mid morning and I moved on it. Thursday  was just an overbought pullback. Strong economic data is likely to bring in more buyers after the holiday weekend, keeping downside limited. We saw volume tapering off this afternoon. It could get quieter tomorrow. The weekly average trading volume has been running at 67% of the yearly average and there have been no Distribution Days for the past ten trading sessions.

For now, the stock market has been ignoring the geopolitics. We’ll need to see how things develop over the long weekend.

There's 'no way' market will crash: Acampora

"Wall Street loses ground on Ukraine worry" 

This could fluster stocks on Wall Street and abroad

Quartz: Something really important is starting to happen in the USeconomy. 

How Shiller is signaling 'significant upside' for S&P

"Stock futures up, indexes on track for 4th week of gains" - 

Bloomberg - Gold Falls 1st Time in 4 Days on Improving U.S. Economy 

Discloser: This document provides only impersonal advice and statistical data and is not intended to meet objectives or suitability requirements of any specific account. Alpha for the Independent Investor is a blog/newsletter which is published periodically, not requiring subscription or compensation in any manner for the information provide. The publisher is not compensated in any manner, financial or otherwise, by any third parties which may from time to time be mentioned in the writings or examples.

Investing involves substantial risk. Neither the publisher, the authors, nor any of their employees makes any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using the Newsletter. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for every situation. While past performance may be analyzed in the Newsletter, past performance should not be considered indicative of future performance. No subscriber should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing the prospectus and other public filings of the issuer. The publisher and the authors make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the Newsletter and specifically disclaim all warranties, including without limitation warranties of fitness for a particular purpose. Neither the publisher nor the authors shall be liable for damages arising here from. No warranty may be created or extended by sales or promotional materials.

The fact that an organization or Website is referred to in the Newsletter as a citation and/or a potential source of further information does not mean that the authors or the publisher endorse the information the organization or Website may provide or recommendations it may make. Further, readers should be aware that Internet Websites listed in this work may have changed or disappeared between when the Newsletter was written and when it is read.

The Newsletter is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities. The authors may own the securities which are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the Newsletter and will make disclosures concerning their ownership of securities where relevant.

Thursday August 28, 2014

$SPY Remaining allocated at the 50% long and 50% cash level. I will be traveling, long Labor Day Weekend, low trading volume and renewed noise around the Geo-Political hub.  I have no reason to chase yield or returns into that scenario at this time. However, if you are looking for ideas you might look at $BIIB, $CAVM or $AER for possible adds to your holdings.  You are invited to review Alpha Model Portfolio for details.

Russia has invaded Ukraine: President Poroshenko

In Q2 2014, U.S. institutions decreased equity holdings

"Wall Street drifts to another record in light trading " 

 U.S. Stock-Index Futures Slide After S&P 500 Above 2,000

Cramer's Mad Money - 5 Retailers That Might (Or Might Not) Recover(8/26/14)

A 60% correction ahead? Two experts think so

Discloser: This document provides only impersonal advice and statistical data and is not intended to meet objectives or suitability requirements of any specific account. Alpha for the Independent Investor is a blog/newsletter which is published periodically, not requiring subscription or compensation in any manner for the information provide. The publisher is not compensated in any manner, financial or otherwise, by any third parties which may from time to time be mentioned in the writings or examples.

Investing involves substantial risk. Neither the publisher, the authors, nor any of their employees makes any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using the Newsletter. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for every situation. While past performance may be analyzed in the Newsletter, past performance should not be considered indicative of future performance. No subscriber should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing the prospectus and other public filings of the issuer. The publisher and the authors make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the Newsletter and specifically disclaim all warranties, including without limitation warranties of fitness for a particular purpose. Neither the publisher nor the authors shall be liable for damages arising here from. No warranty may be created or extended by sales or promotional materials.

The fact that an organization or Website is referred to in the Newsletter as a citation and/or a potential source of further information does not mean that the authors or the publisher endorse the information the organization or Website may provide or recommendations it may make. Further, readers should be aware that Internet Websites listed in this work may have changed or disappeared between when the Newsletter was written and when it is read.

The Newsletter is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities. The authors may own the securities which are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the Newsletter and will make disclosures concerning their ownership of securities where relevant.

Wednesday August 27, 2014

$SPY I am still watching $XEC for an exit point and will remain as allocated going into the Labor Day Weekend.  My postings may be inconsistent over the coming weeks as there are some preexisting travel plans which will affect my work some.  I will be posting remotely so be patient and this too will pass.  Have an Enjoyable and Safe Labor Day Weekend!  For Details see Alpha Model Portfolio

Lagarde put underinvestigation in fraud case: Report

"Global stocks gain on ECB stimulus hopes, U.S. economic data" 

In case you missed it the first time around: "Here’s what it will take to trigger the next stock market correction" 

Bloomberg - Equities Reach Record $66 Trillion as S&P 500 Hits 2,000

Tuesday August 26, 2014

$SPY I will be selling $XEC on an opinion change and buying $MPWR.  Will remain around 50% allocated at this time based upon the allocation model.  See Alpha Model Portfolio for further detail.

"Investors look for moregains as U.S. S&P 500 index hits 2,000 milestone" -

MarketWatch: 5 misguided myths about stock-marketvolatility.

Buffett to help Burger King buy Tim Hortons

S&P 500 tops 2K -- but can't close above it

Monday August 25, 214

$SPY I will be looking at $RFMD again this week for re-entry.  Closed out a very successful trade on July 2^nd and let it settle for a while.  The boards of both $RFMD and $TQNT are now scheduled special shareholder meetings for September 5, 2014, in relation to the previously announced business combination between RFMD and TriQuint.

Insiderslab.com found company CEO, Robert A. Bruggeworth, sold his shares at the price of US$11.99 on August 19. Investors may want to find out how RF Micro Devices insiders like CEOs, CFOs and Directors are thinking about the future of the company. 

After reviewing the disclosers it is my opinion that the sales are not meaningful as to the seller’s disposition on the stock and are more in line with periodic sales for other purposes.  It appears that the sellers of late have all maintained meaningful positions in the stock.  Review Alpha Model Portfolio for further details.

Dog days of August couldbring surprise for stocks

Fewer economists believe US policy on right track

"Market leaders seen taking S&P 500 to2,000"

Discloser: This document provides only impersonal advice and statistical data and is not intended to meet objectives or suitability requirements of any specific account. Alpha for the Independent Investor is a blog/newsletter which is published periodically, not requiring subscription or compensation in any manner for the information provide. The publisher is not compensated in any manner, financial or otherwise, by any third parties which may from time to time be mentioned in the writings or examples.

Investing involves substantial risk. Neither the publisher, the authors, nor any of their employees makes any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using the Newsletter. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for every situation. While past performance may be analyzed in the Newsletter, past performance should not be considered indicative of future performance. No subscriber should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing the prospectus and other public filings of the issuer. The publisher and the authors make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the Newsletter and specifically disclaim all warranties, including without limitation warranties of fitness for a particular purpose. Neither the publisher nor the authors shall be liable for damages arising here from. No warranty may be created or extended by sales or promotional materials.

The fact that an organization or Website is referred to in the Newsletter as a citation and/or a potential source of further information does not mean that the authors or the publisher endorse the information the organization or Website may provide or recommendations it may make. Further, readers should be aware that Internet Websites listed in this work may have changed or disappeared between when the Newsletter was written and when it is read.

The Newsletter is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities. The authors may own the securities which are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the Newsletter and will make disclosures concerning their ownership of securities where relevant.

Wrap Up August 23, 2014

Over the week ending August 22, 2014 the Model Portfolio picked up 267 Basis Points in YTD performance while adding two positions, $FFIV and $HLS and adding to the previously existing position in $HEES.  No sales were undertaken.   Year-to-date the model is up 25.97%

We will continue to monitor the Watch List for names with improving technical indicators for possible addition to the portfolio.  But the current allocation of 50% Long in in line with our Market Models suggested allocation and there is no urgency at this time to commit addition dollars.

For further detail on the portfolio click:  Alpha Model Portfolio

Discloser: This document provides only impersonal advice and statistical data and is not intended to meet objectives or suitability requirements of any specific account. Alpha for the Independent Investor is a blog/newsletter which is published periodically, not requiring subscription or compensation in any manner for the information provide. The publisher is not compensated in any manner, financial or otherwise, by any third parties which may from time to time be mentioned in the writings or examples.

Investing involves substantial risk. Neither the publisher, the authors, nor any of their employees makes any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using the Newsletter. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for every situation. While past performance may be analyzed in the Newsletter, past performance should not be considered indicative of future performance. No subscriber should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing the prospectus and other public filings of the issuer. The publisher and the authors make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the Newsletter and specifically disclaim all warranties, including without limitation warranties of fitness for a particular purpose. Neither the publisher nor the authors shall be liable for damages arising here from. No warranty may be created or extended by sales or promotional materials.

The fact that an organization or Website is referred to in the Newsletter as a citation and/or a potential source of further information does not mean that the authors or the publisher endorse the information the organization or Website may provide or recommendations it may make. Further, readers should be aware that Internet Websites listed in this work may have changed or disappeared between when the Newsletter was written and when it is read.

The Newsletter is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities. The authors may own the securities which are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the Newsletter and will make disclosures concerning their ownership of securities where relevant.

August 17, 2014 Start on top of the Market with the following…

Alpha Model Portfolio Weekly Wrap Up

FactSetStreetAccount Summary - US Weekly Recap: Dow +0.66%, S&P +1.22%, Nasdaq+2.15%, Russell +0.91%

Zero Hedge: Why The FedCan't, And Won't, L

WMUR Manchester: Can thestock market rally keep going?

The Motley Fool: 5Indispensable Lessons Every Investor Should Know. 

Forbes Now: Easy Money Will Lead to Bubbles and How to Profit from Them.

August 16, 2014 Weekly Wrap UP

Our portfolio experienced several trades driven by downgrades in the Opinion on the names.  See the Closed Trades tab for further detail.

Overall we are holding our Year-to-date return at 23.31% down 173 basis points from the high of 25.04% as of 6/30/014.  In comparison the S & P 500 YTD is 5.80% down 100 basis points from its 6/30/14 return of 6.80% and the Russell 2000 down 508 basis points from its YTD return of 3.18% on 6/30/14. 

The allocation level is at approximately 43% a little higher than the suggested algorithmic allocation of 38% Bullish and 62% Bearish. Our Technical Market Model as of Friday has returned to a more Bullish sentiment for three of the four markets analyzed.  This is a short term model and may change directions very quickly; it should be used in conjunction with the algorithmic allocation recommendations.

Details of the  Model Portfolio may be viewed by clicking on the following link:  ALPHA FOR THE INDEPENDENT INVESTOR

Friday, August 15, 2014 Update

Continuing strength among the biotech stocks along with the $IWM and the $QQQ suggests that momentum investors are back. They are just more selective. For further bounces, we’ll need to see VIX (12.42) to stay decisively under 12.50.

$SPY This ETF Is Overreacting To The Sell-off 

$BIDU: Baidu, Inc: Greater Than Google, Or Safer To Sell? An AlgorithmicPerspective

$GOOGL: Google Penetrates The E-Learning Market To Expand ChromebookSales

$GOOGL, The Internet Monopoly I Want To Own Forever  

$SPY Who is right: Bond traders or stock traders?

I remain conservatively allocated at 38% Long and 62% Cash.  This week I have closed out the following six additional positions to cash, $MYL, $OKE, $TEN, $SE, $TEVA and $EOG. More detail to follow over the weekend.

Tuesday August 12, 2014

$SPY.. Low volume continues to cause concern..
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101911357

Friday's trend reversal turned the past week into a slightly down week for me since I maintained the .SPY141018P192 hedge through Friday.  But given Friday was an oversold rally on low volume it will take several follow-throughs before I am willing to take the hedge off.  Three names in the portfolio have had Opinion changes and I will be watching $OKE, $SE and $TEN for exit alerts on Monday.  The market model remain Bearish and both the Dow Industrials and the Russell 2000 now carry a Bearish opinion.  Model Portfolio details can be viewed by clicking on Alpha Model Portfolio.  Please review the disclaimer statement published on August 3, 2014.

Today will most likely see more of the same with Europe and Asia turning in negative or weak results for Friday’s session.  The models remain Bearish as the underlying stocks continue to weaken in and of themselves.  The lists which I put together and follow for my own use have lost Bullishness at a rapid pace this week.  See below, the absolute distribution has moved into the Bearish camp down from a 79% Long recommendation level as of the August 1^st close to the current level as of yesterday’s close.

I remain Bearish going into the weekend, mostly on geopolitical concerns.  While domestic trends are improving the fear mentality will continue to prevail and the resulting volatility will be costly. Thus far this year I have done well and would rather error on the side of caution than chase returns in this uncertain environment. Since July 7^th, 30% of the daily sessions have been days of Distribution.  Days of increased trading volume with lower closings. Well above the normal trend for the markets which is typically about 20%.  My current Market Scored Allocation level has dropped to 25% Long - 75% Hedged.

Recently the question was asked about how the ‘Master List’ was put together.

Using Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) eTables, for which we pay a monthly subscription fee, we use their screening tools to extract companies with high ratings ranked by both the Industrial Group Rel/Str and their SMR Rating.  The cutoff point for inclusion on the list varies from time to time in order to produce a sufficient number of names for the ‘Master List.’  Typically the list will range between 150 and 200 names which then are subjected to further technical analysis.  The first step identifies companies that are both members of strong Industrial Groups and individually have strong fundamentals.

Update August 4, 2014

We will be starting the week off in a defensive mode waiting for the Markets reaction to the Jobs data to be released on Thursday.  The current asset allocation recommendation is approximately 40% Long and 60% Cash.  I am a little heavy still on equities side so I will keep the $SPY Puts in place.  The current model detail is available at Alpha Model Portfolio for your review.  If there are any questions I will be please to respond send your inquiries to 2AlphaVL@gmail.com

This document provides only impersonal advice and statistical data and is not intended to meet objectives or suitability requirements of any specific account. Alpha for the Independent Investor is a blog/newsletter which is published periodically, not requiring subscription or compensation in any manner for the information provide. The publisher is not compensated in any manner, financial or otherwise, by any third parties which may from time to time be mentioned in the writings or examples.

Investing involves substantial risk. Neither the publisher, the authors, nor any of their employees makes any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using the Newsletter. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for every situation. While past performance may be analyzed in the Newsletter, past performance should not be considered indicative of future performance. No subscriber should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing the prospectus and other public filings of the issuer. The publisher and the authors make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the Newsletter and specifically disclaim all warranties, including without limitation warranties of fitness for a particular purpose. Neither the publisher nor the authors shall be liable for damages arising here from. No warranty may be created or extended by sales or promotional materials.

The fact that an organization or Website is referred to in the Newsletter as a citation and/or a potential source of further information does not mean that the authors or the publisher endorse the information the organization or Website may provide or recommendations it may make. Further, readers should be aware that Internet Websites listed in this work may have changed or disappeared between when the Newsletter was written and when it is read.

The Newsletter is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities. The authors may own the securities which are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the Newsletter and will make disclosures concerning their ownership of securities where relevant.