Saturday, February 28, 2015

$SPY, $STUDY, After a month of strong performance, stocks closed out February on a lower note Friday as economic data wasn’t all that inspiring with stocks being at record highs.

While stocks in general had a fabulous February, the Alpha One Model is on fire.   The Year-to-date performance is strong and the holdings continue to gain momentum.  (Please review the detail by clicking on the ‘Alpha One Model’ in the menu bar above.) The Asset Allocation Model remains at 75% Long and 25% Cash with the portfolio at 55% Long. 

The performance has been so strong that I personally do not feel compelled to add to the risk exposure at this time.  The coming week will see me watching daily, with interest of course, trading the SPY Options while remaining cautious. 

Friday saw the VIX (13.34) settling at the lowest level since early December, suggesting that there wasn’t much fear in the market, which is not a particularly good omen I might add. Odds still favor higher prices after some near term consolidation/pullbacks.

Friday, February 27, 2015

$SPY, $STUDY, Todays trade SPY150417P211, entered @ $4.48 exited @ $4.77…

Monday, February 23, 2015

$SPY, $STUDY, Todays trade SPY150417C210 entered @ $4.35, exited @ $4.27..not all trades are winners.  I did not feel strongly about todays market so I set the downside exit alert a little tighter than I might normally.  Fortunately for me the $VRX (Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc) which was put on 10/27/14 is more than making up for the trading loss.  Rather be lucky than good any day….

Saturday, February 21, 2015

$SPY, $STUDY, Last week was another very profitable week for the Alpha One Model although the lion share of the appreciation came from the portfolio holdings rather than the day trading activities.  Outside commitments had me away from the desk most of the week. Currently the portfolio is allocated at 55% long 45% cash versus the recommended level of 75% long and 25% cash.  There may be a few trades in the coming week from the Watch List but again I am not going to aggressively chase return when the day trading is doing well.

The shorter term Active Traders Model is very Bullish as you will note but here the model is extremely short term and totally technical in nature.  On the intermediate term side the Allocation model is also Bullish but not at yet at the level of the Active Traders Model. While it is also technical in nature it does analyze both Interest Rate and Investor Sentiment data in formulating its output. For me the combination translates into an exposure level between 55% - 75% along with hedging activities (Day Trading the SPY) to protect the YTD gains.  It remains a stock pickers market, earning season is most done with about 62% of the announcements beating estimates thus far.  The remainder of the quarter will be driven by news and those that know me already understand that I do not let blind people drive my car, enough said on that subject.

With the Greece problem getting kicked down the road and the ECB to start its own QE in March, stocks are set up for more short term gains. Like what we saw in the past two sessions, pullbacks are likely to be bought. The lack of selling pressure, coupled with eagerness from those underinvested to buy in, is likely to allow stocks to melt up further into record territory.

Friday February 20, 2015

$SPY, $STUDY, Today’s trade SPY150320C209, entered @ $3.24, exited @ $3.49….

Tuesday February 17, 2015

$SPY, $STUDY, Today’s trade SPY150320C209 entered @ $3.54 and exited @ $3.86…

Saturday February 14, 2015

$SPY, $STUDY, The Alpha One Model continues to grow both on the appreciation of the portfolio holdings now at eleven positions or 55% invested and the daily trading of the SPY options.  This past week I added five names to the portfolio $DAN, $ICLR, $ORAN, $SKX and $UA.  I most likely will hang around this level as the quarter unwinds.  We are now past the peak of earnings announcements and the media faces will begin to hyper report on geopolitical events which will most likely cause market volatility to remain high. If there were only a news source less interested in selling minutes and more interested in reporting factual news without ‘hyper opinion’ the world would be a better place.

In addition to the S&P 500, both the small-cap Russell 2000 and mid-cap S&P 400 indexes are at fresh records. Stocks are overbought on a short term basis but not on a medium term basis. There is more room to go on the upside. Momentum is bullish while sentiment isn’t overly complacent yet. Those that are underinvested are likely to start buy in on pullbacks, keeping downside limited. Technology stocks have outperformed lately. The NASDAQ looks to be making its way back to 5000. It is truly a stock pickers market so measure twice and cut once.  Enjoy the long Presidents Day weekend!

Tuesday February 10, 2015

$SPY, $STUDY, Today’s trade was SPY150320P206 I entered at $4.63 and exited at $4.95 using an alert which was set at SPY at or below 204.83 which touched at 10:46 AM.  Yes, I know the market is up at this time (1:05 PM 2/10/15) but I was not buying the market I was trading the SPY.  My Entry Signal which is driven by the trend in the underlying told me to follow the Puts this AM, see chart below.  I calculated my profit points and set my exit alert based upon the Profit target which I was seeking for the trade.  There was about $10,000 committed and a profit of $651 or 6.5% on the trade today. 

You do the math for your portfolio…

Friday February 6, 2015

$SPY, $STUDY, Today’s trade SPT150320C206, entered @ $4.23  exited @ $4.59… used the forecasted price from the spreadsheet to exit … 

Wednesday February 5, 2015

$SPY, $STUDY, Today's trade SPY150320C204 entered @ $4.95 exited @ $5.40… was away for most of the afternoon relied on an alert calculated on spreadsheet below to exit.  

Tuesday February 3, 2015

$SPY, $STUDY, Today’s trade SPY150220C203 Enter @ $4.70 and Exit @ $4.70…not every trade is a winner….. 

Monday February 2, 2015

$SPY, $STUDY, Today’s trade SPY150220C200, Entered @ $3.21 Exited @ $3.58…