$SPY, $STUDY, What the market is afraid of appears to be a June
rate hike. But as that has been talked about so much lately, it is probably not
going to make a big difference in the stock market, even if the Fed decides to
hike in June. A drop in VIX this week indicated that there isn’t much fear in
the market.
Technically, the intermediate term trend remains up. However, the
Alpha Market Model short term is Bearish, and there was no change in the
recommended allocation level. Over the
short term, watch for support near March lows of the major indexes. Should the
March lows (2040 for the S&P 500) give, we could see a new leg down to the
200-day moving averages (2013 for the S&P 500).
There were no equity trades over the past week, the current
holdings performed well over the shortened trading week, additionally the two
Option trades added to profitability.
We have refreshed the Master List which has been posted to the
Alpha One Model data sheet on this site.
There are some attractive names on the Watch List but remain cautious
until the earning season gets underway.
The first 10 trading days of April will be whimsical.
Not really sure what to expect on the earnings front at this time,
the data surfaced in the Factset Insight article referenced below is disturbing to say the
least. I anticipated an impact from the
Energy sector as the result of falling prices, but not nearly as significant as
the article indicates. Time will tell.
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