Some might say that the
stock market is showing us that 2015 is no 2014, but it is way too early to
draw that conclusion. Particularly since
January 2014 was a down month for all four of the major indexes. Perhaps what should be garnered from this
first week of trading is that volatility remains the driver and what we need to
be focused on is our portfolio discipline, stock picking technique and our
hedging activities.
At the end of this first full week of 2015, all four major indexes
are in the red for the year and are caring Sell signals. With few exceptions
the tracking indicators of the major indexes are negative and heading lower,
suggesting more pullbacks likely in the near term. It won’t be surprising to volatility
as measured by the VIX and VXN remaining relatively high. As the month unfolds it will be up to earnings
to drive the direction of the markets, thankfully.
Currently the portfolio
allocation is closely aligned with the 75% Long and 25% Cash recommendation of
the model.
The Alpha One Model had a robust start to the year up 13.85%
through Friday, albeit the lion share of
the gain is from Options trading in the hedging activities. However it is important to note that the
stocks were up 1.83% for the year and that is significantly better than the
markets. Eleven of the current fourteen holdings have positive returns thus far
this year.
What will be the ActualEarnings Growth Rate for Q4?
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