$SPY, $STUDY, Last week was another very profitable week for the Alpha
One Model although the lion share of the appreciation came from the portfolio
holdings rather than the day trading activities. Outside commitments had me away from the desk
most of the week. Currently the portfolio is allocated at 55% long 45% cash versus
the recommended level of 75% long and 25% cash.
There may be a few trades in the coming week from the Watch List but
again I am not going to aggressively chase return when the day trading is doing
well.
The shorter term Active Traders Model is very Bullish as you will
note but here the model is extremely short term and totally technical in
nature. On the intermediate term side the
Allocation model is also Bullish but not at yet at the level of the Active
Traders Model. While it is also technical in nature it does analyze both
Interest Rate and Investor Sentiment data in formulating its output. For me the
combination translates into an exposure level between 55% - 75% along with
hedging activities (Day Trading the SPY) to protect the YTD gains. It remains a stock pickers market, earning
season is most done with about 62% of the announcements beating estimates thus
far. The remainder of the quarter will
be driven by news and those that know me already understand that I do not let
blind people drive my car, enough said on that subject.
With the Greece problem getting kicked down the road and the ECB
to start its own QE in March, stocks are set up for more short term gains. Like
what we saw in the past two sessions, pullbacks are likely to be bought. The
lack of selling pressure, coupled with eagerness from those underinvested to
buy in, is likely to allow stocks to melt up further into record territory.
